Who knows how things will play out with Iran? It's probably not productive to make guesses; but one thing worth thinking about is how history will end up scoring President Bush on Iranian relations and his success in promoting American interests. If nothing significant happens with/in Iran between now and Bush's departure in January, Iraq will most likely overshadow its neighbor almost entirely in assessments of Bush - at least until something dreadful (or unexpectedly fortuitous) happens to/in Iran and everyone sets out to find root causes.
But there are good signs from Iran this week. There are two messages coming out of the government - one of which is significantly more positive than the other (though both are doubtless positive responses, compared to former results).
So what if Iran and the US reach some kind of deal before Bush leaves and relations between the two countries start to normalize - with symbolic gestures such as the proposed creation of direct flight between New York and Tehran put in the works? That would be something, indeed. It's beyond unlikely - of course. But let's indulge the prospect for a moment to see what the upshot for Bush's foreign policy legacy would be.
It would change things a great deal, I think.
Present logic holds that Bush made a mess of already messy Iranian relations by going into Iraq. It certainly seems that this is the case. But it is only because of the Iraq war and the new unltra-close proximity of US and Iranian interests that the Ayatollah decided in 2006 to remove a long standing ban on any diplomatic dealings with the US. If those dealings turn out to be the seads of a (I repeat: very unlikely) imminent mending of relations between the US and Iran, George W. Bush will have to be seen in a somewhat more positive light as he steps down; and he will doubtless be much more highly considered in history's assessment of his Foreign policy, the results of which will be, without a great stretch of the imagination if Iranian relations are improved, a Middle East with large US allay (Iraq) a diffused relatively major enemy (Iran) and a (sad but somewhat helpful) sidetrack focus on Shia-Sunni sectarian fights for Muslims who long for action and ultimately bloodshed. That is a much better Middle East than President Bush started with - at least it will seem this way to history.
But there are good signs from Iran this week. There are two messages coming out of the government - one of which is significantly more positive than the other (though both are doubtless positive responses, compared to former results).
So what if Iran and the US reach some kind of deal before Bush leaves and relations between the two countries start to normalize - with symbolic gestures such as the proposed creation of direct flight between New York and Tehran put in the works? That would be something, indeed. It's beyond unlikely - of course. But let's indulge the prospect for a moment to see what the upshot for Bush's foreign policy legacy would be.
It would change things a great deal, I think.
Present logic holds that Bush made a mess of already messy Iranian relations by going into Iraq. It certainly seems that this is the case. But it is only because of the Iraq war and the new unltra-close proximity of US and Iranian interests that the Ayatollah decided in 2006 to remove a long standing ban on any diplomatic dealings with the US. If those dealings turn out to be the seads of a (I repeat: very unlikely) imminent mending of relations between the US and Iran, George W. Bush will have to be seen in a somewhat more positive light as he steps down; and he will doubtless be much more highly considered in history's assessment of his Foreign policy, the results of which will be, without a great stretch of the imagination if Iranian relations are improved, a Middle East with large US allay (Iraq) a diffused relatively major enemy (Iran) and a (sad but somewhat helpful) sidetrack focus on Shia-Sunni sectarian fights for Muslims who long for action and ultimately bloodshed. That is a much better Middle East than President Bush started with - at least it will seem this way to history.
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