Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Why Obama and the Democrats Will Have More Trouble Than They Think

Sunday’s Washington Post says the Obama team is aiming at all 50 states, trying to give lots of help to down-ballot elections. But an Obama presence tied up with a Democrat running for congress in – let’s say – northern Mississippi is bad news. In fact, it’s doing the Republicans’ job for them. The Republican strategy in those kinds of districts is to paint the Dem candidate as part of the Obama Dem party – which his just too liberal to be appealing. And the only reason the Dems won in – let’s say – northern Mississippi, taking a GOP seat, is that the Republican claim was unconvincing. If Travis Childers had been seen with the Obama campaign, the fact that he thinks like a conservative Republican wouldn’t have much mattered.

The Obama plan begins with victories in Kerry-voting states, and then adds 18 electoral votes somewhere. But what happens to the plan if it doesn’t begin correctly?

McCain really does appeal to a significant chunk of Democrats (HRC backers) while Obama doesn’t pull much from the Republican side. Disaffected Republicans are flooding the country; Defecting Republicans are few and far between – in fact, they are the true elites in this race (not concerned about the populist and cultural aspects of their party to stick with it when things go bad on the high end).

Thanks to McCain’s status as a Republican peculiarity, it’s looking like the GOP will be able to count once again on Ohio and Florida. On the Dems side, however, it’s looking (more each week, it seem) like either Michigan or Pennsylvania will jump the blue-state ship. Ironically, it seems Obama’s role as a party-peculiarity will prove a serious disadvantage – totally reversing the dynamics that McCain found in a very similar role.

I still say the best move for Obama is to put the South into play. Pick Sam Nunn as a running mate, win Georgia and North Carolina, keep pushing hard out west, and reduce the catastrophic fallout from a rude move by Michigan or Pennsylvania.

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