How the mighty have fallen.
For decades, John McCain has cultivated an image of an outsider, not a leader who could usher in a period of post-partisan politics, but a senator for whom party bickering held little interest, a senator who seemed to enjoy bucking his party's leadership to accomplish what he thought was important: campaign finance reform; immigration; opposition to tax cuts for the wealthy.
Yet perhaps convinced by consultants that he can't win the presidency without mobilizing his base, John McCain is running in large part in 2008 against his well-known and probably well-earned persona--"after all," the consultants must be saying, "how well did it work for you in 2000?"
Let's face the, ahem, facts on the ground; John McCain faces unprecedented odds in building a winning coalition in this election. The Republican brand could not be more unpopular. In key electoral swing states like Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire, Democrats are poised to win high-turnout senate seats. He will face a magnificent fundraising deficit.
As I've stated before, this election has been over for a long time. But the guy is almost 72 years old and has dedicated the last 30 years of his life for the opportunity he has now--so he has to go down swinging.
But he's doing it all wrong. John McCain faces immense problems in the religious community, the same community Karl Rove almost singularly credits with W's 2004 margin of victory. Of course, his difficulties are compounded by the fact that Obama is investing serious resources in a grassroots movement aimed at evangelicals who are increasingly interested in core Democratic issues: healthcare; the environment; an empathetic immigration policy; ending the war in Iraq. If Obama picks Tim Kaine as his running mate, the Democratic ticket will be comprised of two deeply religious and proud Christians.
I certainly understand my friend's point that McCain's provocative ad calling Obama "The One" appeals to a certain portion of the religious community. But George W. Bush, who ran two tremendously disciplined presidential campaigns, appealed to these communities with detailed, local, church-based organizing campaigns and direct mail--not national tv ad buys. He dedicated his television commercials, especially in his introduction to voters, targeting base conservatives and latinos, a minority group that was integral to his re-election.
The ad itself is laughable--considerably more laughable than his earlier ad blaming his opponent for high gas prices, which was hard to surpass. Not only does he not offer any contrasts to the image of Obama he attempts to create, he doesn't even level any direct criticisms of Obama. First we couldn't vote for Obama because his pastor was a nut. Next we couldn't vote for him because his wife wasn't patriotic. Now we can't vote for him because his supporters are rabid? How about some actual contrasts on the issues.
The problem is, McCain can't win on the issues. Is he going to win on not providing healthcare? On permanent bases in Iraq? On record deficits?
Hillary Clinton was able to score some points against Obama in the primary because she could say, "he's all words." She could then pivot and talk about her plan to provide healthcare to every American and to end the war. Her presence reminded Democratic voters of a more peaceful and uncomplicated time. McCain can't pivot. His recent advertising has showed that he recognizes this fact better than anyone. All that's left to do is try to convince voters that the other guy isn't suitable for office. Referencing him as the anti-christ and signalling that his election would bring about the end of the days is more likely to convince them of the exact opposite.
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